The Premier League’s top five teams are separated by just three points, but only two of them possess the complete title package

No one wins the Premier League after 12 games but things are starting to take shape at the top and Liverpool’s visit to Manchester city on Saturday will affect the title race in one way or another.

Numerous teams have had impressive starts but we find ourselves in the usual position of Manchester City being top. Only three points separate the first five clubs but despite the best efforts of Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Aston Villa, they are still looking up at Pep Guardiola.

Unless Saturday’s game in east Manchester ends in a draw, a psychological blow will be struck. If City get the points it will be further evidence they are the team to catch, but if Liverpool depart victorious it will show how far they have come since finishing fifth last season.

I think that, unlike last season, we will see a closely run title race involving City, Liverpool and Arsenal, with the first two of those clubs in it to the end. When I have watched Arsenal, I have seen more maturity in their play; Mikel Arteta has compromised his flamboyant attacking style to gain more control and that can make it difficult to score goals. I think last season they had more intensity and energy but I understand he has dulled that down to manage games better, especially with Champions League football in the mix. This adaptation will keep them in the hunt for as long as possible but I do not think they have enough to get over the line yet.

Those currently battling for the final guaranteed Champions League spot, Tottenham and Aston Villa, meet on Sunday. In the early months of a season I am always looking at squads, the injuries they sustain and the numbers of games players are involved in. City are used to coping with a hectic schedule and know how best to deal with playing twice a week, rotating the squad and managing without injured personnel.

Tottenham started quickly, going unbeaten in 10 league matches, but once they lost James Maddison and Micky van de Ven to injuries it affected their form. Those two are expected to be out until the new year and it will be interesting to see how Ange Postecoglou reacts as he tries to keep Spurs on track. Villa’s visit will be difficult after two straight defeats, and with a trip to City next weekend it is a vital couple of matches without star men.

Unai Emery’s side have started equally promisingly. They sit fifth but my main doubt about Villa is whether their squad is big enough to cope with playing in the Europa Conference League on a Thursday and the Premier League on a Sunday. It is a tough ask for any club, especially one that has not faced such a challenge since 2010-11.

One thing none of the chasers can compete with is City’s level of experience of winning the league. They have been champions in five of the past six seasons because they are ruthless. City’s core group of players, with countless honours, know how to get through difficulties and when they need to be at their best in a long season.

Guardiola has changed the style a little after a summer that in which key players left and replacements arrived but it has worked seamlessly so far. For example, Jérémy Doku is a different style of winger to Jack Grealish, with his dribbling and speed down the flank, but has made an immediate impact when some might have expected him to need time to settle. Guardiola has had to manage without John Stones and Kevin De Bruyne for much of the season but City keep winning because they are a well-oiled machine.