Spain are favourites but they have weaknesses England can exploit

Spain have been the best team at Euro 2024. They are the most coherent pressers and attackers, and everyone is quite rightly expecting them to win in Berlin. Spanish footballers know how to win, too. Spain or Spanish clubs have been in 26 finals in the World Cup, Euros, Champions League or Europa League in the last 23 years, and have won every single time. The only times a Spanish club side have lost a final has been when they played against another Spanish side.

So, how can this England team overcome recent history (nine of those cup-final wins for Spanish sides have been against English teams) and secure their first major tournament since 1966? The good news for England fans is that, even though Spain have been the most impressive side at the tournament, they are not completely infallible.

Defensive fragility

Unlike England, Spain’s success at Euro 2024 has been built on swashbuckling attacking football, and playing opponents off the park. They haven’t edged close games with solid defensive displays. In tournament football, though, there’s an argument that a stingy defence could be even more valuable.

Spain have been far from terrible at the back, but their defence isn’t anything like as strong as their attack. They have conceded shots worth 1.09 expected goals (xG) per game at Euro 2024, which puts them bang in the middle of the 24 teams at the competition, but is the second-worst of teams who made it to the quarter-finals.

There have been games when they have dominated the ball to such an extent that their opponents have barely had a sniff – the 1-0 win over Italy in the group stage being a prime example. The Italians had only four shots, which were worth a total of just 0.16 xG that night in Gelsenkirchen.

But there have also been games when Spain have been caught out at the back. Of the 13 highest xG totals teams have posted in Euro 2024 games, two have come against Spain (2.38 v Croatia and 2.15 v Germany). The only other team to appear two or more times in that list is Georgia.

Spain have been outperformed in xG terms in three of their six games – against France, Germany and Croatia. So, while they create plenty of opportunities, they can also give up chances. England will need to make the most of the opportunities they do get, though, as two goals conceded (excluding own goals) from 6.5 xGA suggests it will take something special to score past Unai Simón.

Uncertainty at centre-back

Robin Le Normand started Euro 2024 as first-choice alongside Aymeric Laporte at the heart of Spain’s defence, but he has just had his least convincing season for Real Sociedad and hasn’t been overly impressive in Germany either.

Part of that will be down to the fact that he plays on the left side of central defence for La Real but has been asked to play on the right for Spain. There have been a couple of particularly bad moments, such as his awkward attempt to deal with a cross against Georgia which he turned into his own net, and his half-time substitution against Germany after picking up an early booking that then ruled him out of the semi-final.

He will be available for the final, but Luis de la Fuente might choose to stick with Nacho, who filled in against France in the semi. The 34-year-old had a decent game, but he clearly isn’t the player his manager wants to be starting or he would have been first-choice in the first place. That’s largely because he isn’t as good on the ball.

Nacho isn’t as comfortable progressing play out of defence as Le Normand, and is far worse at doing so than Laporte. He has made only seven progressive passes in 255 minutes of action at Euro 2024, while Laporte is making almost as many (5.8) on average every 90 minutes played. England could choose to press Nacho or at least force Spain to play out through him, which would significantly disrupt their build-up play.

Sitting on leads

In their last two games, Spain have won 2-1 against Germany and France. On both occasions, they have sat on their lead after going in front.

Rather than pushing forward in search of another goal, De la Fuente’s side have instead looked to protect what they have, which has meant they have conceded territory and have given up chances. You can see just how little they offered from the flat lines on their xG charts after going ahead. Germany took advantage when Florian Wirtz equalised, and they had enough other chances to win the tie inside 90 minutes.

In the France game, Kylian Mbappé wasted a glorious opportunity to make it 2-2, while Aurélien Tchouaméni and Théo Hernandez both had good chances, too. Spain offered very little going the other way; they led for 104 minutes across those two games, but in that time they had just five shots and allowed their opponents 19.

So, even if Spain go ahead – a distinct possibility given England have gone behind in all three of their knockout ties – the game will be far from over. There will be chances for England to get back into the game.

Holes in the middle

Spain are lucky to have the best ball-winning midfielder in Rodri in the middle of the park. His presence means they can commit more men forward than other teams could. They can leave Rodri with a lot to do because he is the best in the world at sweeping up his teammates’ mistakes.

Rodri has helped Fabián Ruiz flourish at Euro 2024 – only Dani Olmo (five) has more goals and assists than him (four) – with Ruiz’s driving runs into the final third and aggressive pressing a big part of what has made Spain so effective in attack. Ruiz has won possession in the final third twice as many times (12) as any other player at Euro 2024.

Spain’s press has been one of their biggest strengths. They rank top of all teams for high turnovers (66), shot-ending high turnovers (13) and goal-ending high turnovers (two). But – and this is a very big but – if England can evade that press, there may be space to be exploited either side of Rodri, with his central-midfield partner Ruiz committing high up the pitch. If Phil Foden and Jude Bellingham can get on the ball in those gaps, then England might find a route to goal.

Lack of depth on the bench

With two goals and an assist from the bench, Dani Olmo has been Euro 2024’s most effective substitute. But, with Pedri injured and out of Sunday’s final, Olmo is needed in the starting XI. That in itself isn’t really a problem – there are worse problems than having no choice but to play Olmo – but it does significantly weaken Spain’s attacking options on the bench.

Mikel Merino and Mikel Oyarzabal are high-quality options who can help retain possession, and Ferran Torres carries a threat out wide. But, otherwise, Spain don’t have many players to properly change the game in an attacking sense.

Álvaro Morata has not scored since Spain’s first game, meaning he has gone 357 minutes – nearly six hours – without a goal. The Spain captain has not even had a shot on target since their second game, which means he has gone four hours and 21 minutes since he last troubled an opposition goalkeeper. He’s not missing chances; he’s barely even getting them.

There are plenty of other attackers in the squad, but none whom De la Fuente is likely to call upon in the final. Álex Baena, Joselu, Ayoze Pérez and Fermín López have just 155 minutes of game time between them at the tournament, and 109 of those came in the group-stage dead rubber against Albania. If England can stay in the game until changes are needed, Spain might start to fade.