New Research exposes China’s significant leverage on Nigeria, influence on country’s Cybercrime Act, other policies

The China Index has ranked Nigeria 4th among 101 countries where the People Republic of China (PRC) has the most influence.

The China Index is the first project to measure and visualize the PRC’s global influence. The 2024 edition covers 101 countries, including Nigeria, offering a nuanced view for academics, policymakers, journalists, and civil society.

The Index is published by the China in the World (CITW) network, an initiative of the Taiwan-based civil society organization Doublethink Lab, and draws on research by hundreds of researchers and local experts
worldwide.

The ranking comes amid ongoing debate on the benefits and potential drawbacks of Nigeria’s engagement with the PRC.

The research reveals that the PRC has continued to expand its influence in Nigeria since 2022.

Rankings are determined by summing normalized responses to 99 Indicators, each corresponding to an observable phenomenon of PRC influence. These Indicators are devised by the Index Committee of experts in PRC influence tactics, and split equally across nine Domains (Media, Academia, Economy, Society, Military, Technology, Law Enforcement, Domestic Politics, and Foreign Policy).

Nigeria’s upward movement in the latest China Index reflects growing PRC influence across key sectors of Nigerian society. As Africa’s most populous country and one of the world’s largest democracies, Nigeria has emerged as a strategic partner in Beijing’s global influence efforts, particularly in the domains of Foreign Policy, Technology, Law Enforcement, and Economy.

The country’s rapid digital development, supported by PRC-backed infrastructure projects, and technology transfer, and training, has also introduced Chinese surveillance systems and cybersecurity norms into Nigeria’s governance framework. Chinese firms such as Huawei have implemented “Safe City” surveillance systems in major cities like Lagos and Abuja. Nigerian officials have also participated in cybersecurity training programs sponsored by Chinese institutions.

These tools, while potentially enhancing public security, also bring new challenges related to data privacy, transparency, and public oversight. The alignment with PRC-style governance models, characterized by centralized digital control, may raise concerns about the long-term implications for civil liberties and institutional accountability.

Ranked 5th globally and highest among African countries, Nigeria’s high position in the Economic Domain underscores its close financial ties with the PRC. As Nigeria’s top trading partner and the holder of most of its bilateral sovereign debt, the PRC appears to wield significant economic leverage, influencing Nigeria’s policy decisions and position in multilateral forums. This also contributes to Nigeria’s top ranking in the Foreign Policy Domain.

Foreign Policy, Military, and Law Enforcement are a part of a Rule-Making cluster, where Nigeria ranks 3rd out of 101 countries and highest among all African countries. The cluster reflects how PRC influence shapes national standards, governance models, and security norms. A point of concern is PRC’s influence on government norms in Nigeria.

For example, one Law Enforcement Indicator reads: “In my country, law enforcement and judicial-related training offered by PRC-connected individuals or entities have been accepted by national or subnational governments” to which the graded response is “Yes”, and the following supporting evidence state: “The Chinese Embassy in Nigeria held a two-day Chinese training course for 40 Nigerian police officials in 2019.

In 2023, the PRC Ministry of Public Security also held a two-week seminar on Combating Cybercrime which was attended by Nigerian police officers. Therefore, this Indicator deserves a “More than a Few” rating.

There is the centralized training course for Nigerian police officers and law enforcement officials in China. The participants are 15 police law enforcement officers from the Nigerian Police Headquarters and various branches. Therefore, this Indicator deserves a “Significant” rating.”

All evidence is provided by regional partners of the China Index, in this case the non-profit
Code for Africa, and is subsequently reviewed by local experts.