Manchester City are vulnerable in ways they haven’t been for years

In many respects, Manchester City’s 3-3 draw against Tottenham was an anomaly. City dominated with a 2.6-0.5 xG advantage, hitting the woodwork twice and seeing a potential late winner denied by a referee’s decision. Despite the statistical dominance and overall control, City has now drawn their last three Premier League games, raising eyebrows.

The equalizers conceded by City in their recent matches have come after 95 minutes, 80 minutes, and 90 minutes, showcasing a vulnerability in closing out games. While Pep Guardiola seemed relatively unconcerned, defensive issues persist, with City conceding nine goals in their last four Premier League games – their worst defensive run since 2016.

Guardiola’s team is only three points off the top, and the assumption is that City will find their rhythm in the spring. However, the challenge lies in how big a handicap they will be facing by then. The upcoming match against Aston Villa, a team in good form, adds pressure, especially with key player Rodri suspended.

City’s defensive frailty this season, leaking 16 goals in 14 games, is a departure from their usual solidity. Potential explanations include a drop in intensity after winning the treble, a more direct playing style with Erling Haaland, Jérémy Doku’s occasional ball losses, and a dip in form for Rúben Dias.

The unexpected dependency on John Stones is intriguing. Despite limited playing time this season, Stones has emerged as a crucial player, especially in the hybrid central defensive-holding midfield role. Guardiola’s philosophy emphasizes the team, but Stones seems essential to the balance.

The dilemma with Julián Álvarez, despite his undeniable quality, is his impact on midfield strength when paired with Haaland. Guardiola’s tactical acumen will likely find a solution, especially with the return of Stones and, in late January, Kevin De Bruyne. However, City’s recent defensive vulnerabilities highlight the impact of their shift to a more direct style, leaving them exposed in a way not seen in years.