Kogi Election: How Ajaka, Ododo, Melaye stand in the race 

Kogi Election: How Ajaka, Ododo, Melaye stand in the race 

On Paper, there are 18 candidates for the November 11 governorship poll in Kogi State. But those with real political weights are three –  Usman Ododo of the All Progressives Congress (APC),  Murtala Ajaka of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and Dino Melaye of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). 

However, analysts have predicted that the winner of the election may likely be either APC candidate, Ododo or his counterpart in the SDP, Ajaka. They say the candidate of the PDP, Dino Melaye, is disadvantaged in the race because voting will likely be influenced by ethnic affiliations. Dino’s Okun tribe is ranked third on population strength in the state and lack the numbers to give him the momentum. .

Why tribe matter 

There are three major tribes in Kogi – the Igalas, Ebiras and Okuns. 

The Igala’s are the most populous with not less than 45 per cent of the population, followed by Ebiras and Okuns. 

The Igalas have democratically ruled Kogi since the creation of the state, until the death of Abubakar Audu, who was moment way from being declared winner of the 2015 poll. Then death came and Yahaya Bello, who came second during APC primary and who was not on the ballot during the governorship election, became governor without any vote cast in his name. 

In his 2019 re-election bid, Yahaya Bello was accused of suppressing the  votes of the Igalas because he feared they might vote against him. The votes of the Ebiras were then ‘miraculously’ inflated to erode the advantage of his opponent. Analysts say the Igalas have held a grudge since then against Yahaya Bello.  

Kogi’s political map 

The three major candidates come from the three dominant tribes in the state. Dino is from the Okun tribe, which is the Yoruba speaking people of the state. This tribe is spread across six of the 21 local government areas namely: Kabba-Bunu, Yagba-West, Yagba-East, Mopa-Muro, Ìjùmú and Lokoja. He is expected to perform well in these areas.  But that is not sufficient to make him governor. 

 

Ododo is from Ebira tribe just as the incumbent governor, Yahaya Bello. The Ebiras are dominant in five of the 21 local government areas of the state – Adavi, Ajaokuta, Koton-Karfi, Okehi and Okene. The population of these local governments cannot guarantee the governorship seat for Ododo. But he enjoys the support of Yahaya Bello who is sparing no effort in ensuring that his Ebira kinsman takes over from him as governor. 

Ajaka, on the other hand, appears to have the momentum in this election, largely because of the communal support he is getting from his Igala tribe. The Igalas are the dominant in nine local governments and have sizeable presence in two others. Rough estimates put the Igala at nearly 45 per cent of the total population in the state. Alaka looks good in clinching the vote based on ethnic solidarity that has become the main factor in the election. 

Tinubu’s factor 

Until May this year, Ajaka was a member of the APC, and a strong ally of Tinubu. During the build up to the 2023 election, he donated 46 vehicles to Tinubu’s presidential campaign in Kogi. 

Insiders in Kogi politics told this medium that all has not been well between Tinubu and Yahaya Bello. They say Tinubu shunned Yahaya Bello’s nominee for ministerial appointment and appointed son of his old political ally, Abubakar Audu as minister. Recall that in 2015, Abubakar Audu picked as his running mate, James Faleke, one of the closest associates of Tinubu.  The plan, according to those in the know, was Tinubu’s way of positioning his trusted allies in strategic positions so that when the time comes for his presidential quest, they would be in a position to help. But death took Audu away. 

Yahaya Bello was believed to have overreached himself when he decided to contest the 2023 presidential ticket of the APC against Tinubu. 

According to information gleaned from sources in the camp of the APC in Kogi, Tinubu has not forgiven Yahaya Bello for not endorsing him during the APC primary like the other contenders who dropped out of the race. Yahaya Bello stuck it out to the end. . 

Sources say Tinubu’s camp still believes Yahaya Bello may be nursing another presidential ambition after the failed one which he vied against Tinubu in the APC primary. They fear that he might team up with other northern elements to create trouble for Tinubu in 2027, hence the need to clip his political wings.  

But Yahaya Bello has the war chest that will play a crucial role in the aid of his candidate given the wide scale poverty among the electorates, especially since  the removal of fuel subsidy.

In the end, the contest will be determined by INEC’s willingness to guarantee a free poll.