Edo State braces for election

By Efe Akpotohwo

In less than two months, candidates of the various political parties for the Edo State governorship election will be known. Edo State will be the next major item on the political map as the residents brace up to elect the next executive governor to take over from Governor Godwin Obaseki. The primaries will be held in February while the election will be held on September 26, 2024 according to the timetable released by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). That has informed the heightened political activity in the state as potential aspirants crisscross the state seeking support and selling their agenda. So who will Nick the governorship?

It may be too early to predict the winner because even a day is a long time in politics. However, based on our extensive contacts and usually incisive analysis, Politics Now will keep a tab on the trends of the campaign and furnish our readers with details of what’s on ground, who’s on ground, where, when and how. Beginning with this edition, we xray the campaigns, the issues and project the frontrunners in the race for Osadebay House, the government house.

The Vital Statistics

Size: Edo State as of the last (official) 2006 National population census was ranked as the 24th populated state (3,233,366) in Nigeria. Current population figure is projected at about 4,777,000. By landmass, Edo State is the 22nd largest state in Nigeria. The state’s capital and largest city, Benin City, is reckoned as one of the largest cities in Nigeria. It is Edo South Senatorial district. Other major towns are Auchi, Afuze, Ekpoma, Irrua, Agenebode and Igueben.

Demography: According to information on the Edo State Government website, the main ethnic groups in Edo State are Edos, Afemais, Esans, Owans and Akoko Edos. Virtually all the groups trace their origin to Benin City hence the dialects of the groups vary with their distance from Benin City. The Bini speaking people who occupy seven out of the 18 Local Government Areas of the state constitute 57.54% while others are: Esan (17.14%) Afemai comprising Etsako (12.19%), Owan (7.43%), and Akoko Edo (5.70%). The state is made up of three major ethnic groups; namely Edo (Binis), Esan and Afemai (Owan/Etsako) with Akoko Edo. However the State has a high presence of residents from across the country and the world because of its cosmopolitan tendencies. It also has a very vocal youth demography, especially in Benin and big towns.

Economy: The state has natural resources such as crude oil of which it is a producer and constituent state of the Niger Delta Development Commission. It also has solid minerals like limestone and quarry, among others that have not been fully developed.

Edo State also has tremendous potential for tourism with its rich traditional history and craft. Attractions in Edo State include the Emotan Statue in Benin City, Ise Lake and River Niger Beach in Agenebode, River Niger Beaches at Ilushi, Igun Bronze Casters at Igun Street in Benin City, Okpekpe hills, the Usomege Hills at Apana-Uzairue, and Somorika hills in Akoko Edo.

Geopolitical districts: Edo State has a total of eighteen (18) local government areas (LGAs).

Edo North: Edo North Senatorial District in Edo State has six LGAs viz Etsako West, Etsako East, Etsako Central, Owan West, Owan East and Akoko Edo. Auchi is generally regarded as the headquarters (collation centre) of the senatorial area. APC’s Oshiomhole is the current senator.

Edo Central: comprises Esan South-East, Igueben, Esan North East, Esan West and Esan Central. APC’s Monday Okpebholo is the senator

Edo South: comprises seven LGAs: Oredo, Ovia South West, Egor, Ovia North East, Orhionmwon, Ikpoba Okha and Uhunmwode. Barr. Neda Imasuen of the Labour Party is the senator.

Administration: Benin city was the headquarters of Benin Province, which was retained on the creation of the Midwest Region in 1963 and Edo State in 1991.

Governors: On creation of the Midwest Region, Chief Dennis Osadebay (from Asaba, Delta State) was Premier, with Sir Jereton Mariners (also Delta State) as Governor. After the military took over in 1966, Lt. Col. David Ejoor (Delta State) was military governor until 1967 when Col. Osaigbovo Ogbemudia (Edo South) was appointed military governor until 1975. Col. George Agbazika Innih (Edo North) took over until 1979. Following elections in 1979, Prof. Ambrose Alli (Edo North) was elected governor until 1983 when the military struck again. During this military era indigenes were not appointed to govern their home states. In 1992, Chief Odigie-Oyegun (Edo South) was elected governor until November 1993 under the transition to civil rule program. Again non-indigene military governors were appointed until the return to democracy in 1999.

Chief Lucky Igbinedion (Edo South) was elected Governor in 1999-2007.

Prof. Iserhiemen Osunbor (Edo Central) was sworn in as Governor in 2007 until his election was annulled by the courts.

Comrade Adams Oshiomhole (Edo North) was governor from November 2008 to 2016.

Mr Godwin Obaseki is the current governor since 2016; second term expires November 2024.

The factors that will come into play

Incumbency: Incumbency has always been an important factor in determining elections. In the state, the PDP is in power with Governor Obaseki as leader. The governor has not openly stated it but it is an open secret that he has a candidate, Asue Ighodalo, Chairman of the state’s Alaghodaro Economic Summit. It has never been easy to dislodge an incumbent as the APC can attest to. In 2020, believing that Obaseki had no political base despite being the incumbent governor, the APC tried unsucessfully, even lost in a landslide, at the poll. This time around the PDP will hope that the factor will work again in their favour. The difference this time is that the governor is not on the ballot. The party will try to sell a new candidate. If the party is able to manage the cracks and fallouts from its primary, and presents a candidate that is widely acceptable, then it may win the day.

Yet another angle of the Incumbency factor is the incumbent party at the centre. This is the APC with Oshiomhole, the immediate past governor, as a senator now. President Tinubu is not known to be aloof as Buhari, who was president in 2020. The President, with an eye on his second term in 2027, is expected to work for the APC victory in Edo State, deploying the party’s incumbency at the centre to mobilise all available resources for the mission.

Performance of the parties: Election should be a referendum on the party in power. In this case, it should be a referendum on the PDP’s performance in Edo State and for the APC candidate, of the APC’s performance at the national level.

Power shift: Yet another factor that will come into play is the argument for equity and fairness. There has been a sustained campaign in the state to zone the governorship ticket to the Edo Central Senatorial district, being the Senatorial zone that has not produced a governor. Since the return of civil rule in 1999, Edo North has tasted the governorship for eight unbroken years in the person of Adams Oshiomhole between 2008 and 2016. Edo South has produced governor for 16 years: two terms of Lucky Igbinedion between 1999 and 2007, and the current governor’s tenure, since 2016. The only time Edo Central had a whiff of the governor’s seat was when Prof Osunbor was declared governor in the 2007 election only to be sacked by the courts, 17 months later. Though there is no agreement on zoning the office, the sentiment is high in the state. Yet, the fact that Edo South is the dominant zone in terms of LGAs and population and Edo Central is the smallest pose a problem, as there are also campaigners who are pushing the narrative of ‘getting the best candidate from anywhere.’ If zoning is abandoned, then voting on zonal alliances will favour Edo South.