Edo Governorship Race 2024: How Will The Godfathers Fare?

In the buildup to the 2020 governorship election in Edo State a popular refrain was, Edo no be Lagos, an expression of rejection of godfather politics that is the style of governance in Lagos State.

The refrain became a movement after Governor Obaseki fell out with his godfather, Adams Oshiomhole, with the immediate past governor denying the ticket of the APC and Obaseki finding solace in the opposition PDP. As it happened, Oshiomhole lost in the bid to remove Obaseki and establish himself as the undisputed godfather of Edo politics. Before him was Chief Anthony Anenih, a wily old fox.

Anenih was a retired Police Commissioner who had functioned in three republics as a party chieftain. In the Second Republic he was chairman of the National Party of Nigeria and delivered Osaigbovo Ogbemudia as elected governor of Bendel State in the 1983 election.

When the Third Republic commenced under General Ibrahim Babangida’s regime in 1990, Anenih emerged as chairman of one of the two prescribed parties, the Social Democratic Party (SDP). When the Fourth Republic came in 1999, he emerged as one of the most powerful ministers and politicians, earning the moniker, Mr Fix-It in the Obasanjo Administration. So powerful was Anenih that anyone who wanted to run for political office in Edo State and beyond consulted him, including Oshiomhole who tried to get his support for the PDP ticket.

However, once Oshiomhole got the governorship through other means he declared the Anenih godfatherism dead. He subsequently buried it by himself, emerging as the new godfather in the state under, first the ACN and then, the APC. In that stead he railroaded Obaseki to be governor against the wishes of party chieftains.

And when Obaseki sought a second term, he shut the door in the social to the governor. Obaseki then moved to the PDP complaining of Oshiomhole’s godfather politics. Today Obaseki is playing godfather in the PDP. Can he achieve it? While, Oshiomhole is still the undisputed godfather in the APC. Asked whether godfatherism is good, Obaseki, now a godfather in the making, says there is nothing wrong with mentoring but everything wrong with teleguiding. “Everybody needs nurturing and mentoring but not to the extent of teleguiding you. He can support and help you to make your decisions but ultimately at the end of the day it is for democracy – the people must decide who will lead them.”

Oshiomhole Keeps His Plans Close to his chest

Virtually all the aspirants for the APC know they have to contend with Senator Adams Oshiomhole, the former Governor who is generally regarded as the leader of the party in the state. In 2020, Senator Oshiomhole backed Pastor Ize-Iyamu but lost, a loss Ize-Iyamu who has declared again, says was due to external forces in the APC who did not want the party to succeed.

Though out of government house for over seven years now, the senator is still believed to have tremendous influence, which played out in the fact that despite the APC being in opposition in the state. It is also said to be a measure of his political sagacity that the APC also won two of the three Senate seats and majority of the House of Representatives seats. With that representation, the party is hopeful that it has enough grounds to seize power from the PDP. But, much of that will depend on how it handles its primary given the calibre of people that are coming out to run for the ticket.

Oshiomhole’s position as godfather may have been established, even if his godsons moved against him. Now, they are playing up to him. Shaibu, said after he declared his ambition: “My relationship with Comrade Adams Oshiomhole is cordial. When I mean cordial, he is still my father. I am happy that the governor (Obaseki) has started inviting the former governor (Oshiomhole) and my father to political functions. That is what I have been praying for. And now that he has started, I think that the next step is for me to reach him and also first apologise to him (Oshiomhole) for some use of words during the election.”

Obaseki Holds The Aces in PDP

On his preference for a PDP candidate, Obaseki says it is not for him to pick one but to guide the process to ensure that the outcome omos fair and okay for the state. Asked if he will back Shaibu, he said in pidgin English: “E declare for himself now. No be me go decide whether my deputy, na Edo people go sit down and decide. Them go say, this deputy, e get wetin e take to run the state? Let’s look at his background, antecedents if he has maybe and if he doesn’t have and in any case the Edo people would decide how we would do the governorship whether it would be turn by turn or it will be based on equity, fairness and justice. To say okay, these people have done this before. As a leader, I will sit down and supervise. What is not fair, just and will help Edo unite, my hands are not there.”

Can Obaseki pull off a second victory over his godfather Oshiomhole and establish himself as a new godfather?

Can LP Pull Off Another Stunt?

Before the 2023 General Election, no one gave a third party any chance in Edo State. The power pendulum swung between the APC and the PDP. But in 2023, the Peter Obi revolution sprung the Obidient Movement of disaffected youth and even more mature urban elites to weave a third force that Edo State must now take note of.

In fact it was Governor Obaseki himself who first gave an inkling of what the political class thought of the disruptive element that the Labour Party was with the influence of the Obidient Movement. He said as far back as June 2022: “The future of our politics is changing. If you have been watching the level of disenchantment with the existing political parties. I’m sure in all our homes, we have people who call themselves ‘Obidients’. Ask them which party you belong to, they say ‘Obidient’ They don’t want us. They’re not talking about APC or PDP. They’re looking for alternatives.” That movement create to actualise the Peter Obi presidency took control of the LP and delivered stunning results in many constituencies. A movement and a party without big names, they won elections in many constituencies courtesy of Peter Obi’s star power. They even took out the PDP from the Edo South senatorial seat, winning that seat through Neda Imasuen. They also won representative seats. Since then, the LP has become something of interest.

A party without a godfather, the LP National Chairman Julius Abure, however, is from Edo State and it goes without saying that they will put everything into making a statement in the governorship election.

At the 2023 General Election, LP produced the senator for Edo South, the largest senatorial zone, which includes the state capital, Benin City. The party also won two of the state’s seven House of Representatives seats. The two won are in the Edo South senatorial zone and were won with very wide margins. It also has a seat in the state house of assembly. It is clear that the South senatorial zone is the LP base in the state. It is no wonder that many of its visible aspirants are from that district, such as the immediate past President of Nigerian Bar Association, Olumide Akpata.

Speaking at the LP National Secretariat last year when he received a governorship aspirant, Abure said: “For us in Edo, we have never had the privilege of having a visionary committed, competent and compassionate leader that would be able to reposition Edo for greatness. That is why for me, the 2024 gubernatorial election in Edo is going to be a turning point in the history of Edo state. I say so because the Labour Party will take over the leadership of the state. We have strategically positioned ourselves and the party to be one that will rescue Edo state. Edo is Obidient.”