Analysis: Atiku, Obi vs Tinubu:  Is there any chance for an upset?

Analysis: Atiku, Obi vs Tinubu:  Is there any chance for an upset?

 

 

 

The Supreme Court of Nigeria will on Thursday draw the curtain on the 2023 election by delivering the final judgement on the petitions by major opposition candidates challenging the declaration of Bola Ahmed Tinubu as President.

 

 

Seven-member panel of Supreme Court jurists will have the attention of Nigerians in a judgment that is expected to be shorter than the 13 hours ruling read by the lower court headed by Justice Haruna Tsammani.

 

 

The Justice Tsammani led panel had unanimously dismissed the petitions using strong terms – incompetent, frivolous, and lacking in evidential value. In fact, one of the justices even asked if the petitioners, that is, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party and Peter Obi of the Labour Party, expected them to go shop for evidence for them in the market.

 

 

This Supreme Court panel will have two issues to decide. Whether the judgement of the Justice Tsammani led panel was right or wrong, and whether Atiku’s fresh evidence from Chicago State University (CSU) against Tinubu should be admitted.

 

Recall that Atiku obtained from the Chicago State University a deposition in which the school’s registrar, Caleb Westberg, said the certificate Tinubu submitted to INEC didn’t emanate from them.

 

If the deposition is admitted in evidence, the panel will now determine whether it was fatal to Tinubu’s presidential claim. If the panel rejects it on any grounds, it will not form part of the justices’ decisions.

 

 

 

 What to expect

What to expect appears already known from the October 23 hearing of the apex court.

Recall that Atiku’s lawyer told the justices during the hearing, that the issue involving Tinubu’s certificate was weighty, grave and constitutional one, which the Supreme Court must decide. He urges the court to admit the fresh evidence, which is the CSU deposition.

 

But Justice Okoro, who heads the panel, asked Atiku’s lawyer whether the Supreme Court should rely on the Electoral Act or the Constitution. The question appears to be a tacit way of reminding the senior lawyer that the two documents have time limits for the introduction of fresh evidence.

 

Another member of the panel, Emmanuel Agim, asks Atiku’s lawyer whether the testimony by CSU registrar was conducted in a court.

 

Of course, the testimony was taken in Atiku’s U.S. Attorney’s office, and Tinubu’s lawyers are using that to discredit the evidential value of the deposition.

 

 

 

Justice Agim also appears to have concluded on the case when he said that the CSU did not issue any letter discrediting Tinubu’s certificate. He added: “We are dealing with a matter that touches on the national unity of Nigeria.”

 

 

Justice Agim’s reference to national unity, leads many into suspecting that they are likely to preserve the status quo since ‘national unity’ is at stake.